Scottish independence is an emotive subject and the results of the referendum this coming Thursday will potentially have huge ramifications for the future of Scotland and UK economy. As economists we attempt to remain objective in our analysis and evaluation of events and one could argue that the debate on Scottish independence is awash with normative statements such as Alex Salmond stating independence would make Scotland better off.
The article below analyses and evaluates the potential pitfalls of an independent Scotland based on the premise that oil will be able to sustain economic development. David Smith argues that the marginal cost of producing a barrel of oil has increased 500% in the last 10 years while revenues have fallen and are predicted to keep falling for the foreseeable future, (A2 students should be able to illustrate this diagrammatically).
What implications does this have on fiscal policy? Will the Scots be able to continue to spend 14% more per head than the remaining UK population?
Then there is currency. Will an independent Scotland be able to survive without a ‘lender of last resort’ or will the EU club be too much of a temptation to turn down (if indeed their application is successful)? And if an application is successful what really is the difference in being governed from London or Brussels?